Rhodri's prophetic words

On 10th August Rhodri Morgan told e-politix

"Morgan on Labour leadership

Question: Will the ongoing wrangling over the leadership of the UK Labour Party adversely affect your chances at next year's assembly election?

Rhodri Morgan: Yes. Split parties never win elections. If the electorate gets the feeling that there is interminable wrangling and division over the succession then that is very unhelpful in the run up to the Scottish and Welsh elections in May next year.

We need clarity over the succession of some sort. It is now very much up to the prime minister because the cards are all in his hands and he won a working majority and it is up to him.

We all know that interminable wrangling creates a perception that we are a divided party, and divided parties never do well in elections.

Clarity is the key thing but we have to see what happens in the autumn and winter.

I am sure that the prime minister is very conscious of the fact that the key mid-term test for any Labour government now is not by-elections caused by the untimely death or resignation of an MP, it's the Welsh and Scottish elections. They are a giant mid-term test.

They are almost always at the mid-term difficult period, two years after a general election, 2007 is not going to be any different and they will be very tough for that reason.

Almost all governments are unpopular mid-term and somehow or other we have to make sure Labour in Wales and Scotland are not too badly affected by that".

But I doubt if anyone quite foresaw what is happening today.